WORLD NEWS FOR MONTENEGRO DIASPORA
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AUTHOR:M.J. GDNUS
After two full months of observation, scientists have announced that asteroid 2024 YR4, which was at risk of hitting Earth in 2032, is no longer a threat to our planet. However, this does not eliminate the possibility that Earth will find itself in the path of another asteroid, because the list of potentially dangerous asteroids includes about two and a half thousand of these objects.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has been the topic of almost all media in recent days, was discovered in December. Statements from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) were followed in which, at one point, the chance of a deadly impact in 2032 was as high as three percent.
However, after two months of monitoring this asteroid, ESA reduced the chance of hitting Earth to 0.001 percent, and NASA to 0.0027 percent. This meant that the asteroid would safely pass by Earth in 2032 and that there was no threat of any impact in the coming century.
However, even though this possibility of an impact has been eliminated, this does not mean that similar dangers do not lurk from space.
Nataša Todorović, a senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory in Belgrade, explains to the N1 portal that this asteroid is just one of those approaching Earth and that, thanks to modern telescopes, we are able to detect and track them.
"That is why we have been reading about potentially dangerous asteroids more and more often lately. They have always been there, we just had no way to see them. The International Astronomical Union, which unites national astronomical organizations from all over the world, has published a list of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA), and currently about 2,500 of these objects are known," says Todorović.
She also adds that in the distant past, asteroids hit the Earth more often and that some of these occurrences changed the course of life on it.
"It is believed that the asteroid that hit the Earth about 65 million years ago led to a radical change in the climate that resulted in the extinction of dinosaurs. And the consequence of this consequence is that predators disappeared, without which humans could not survive," says Todorović, emphasizing that for this reason it is a positive event for us.
She also reminds us of events in recent history.
"The largest such impact occurred at dawn on June 30, 1908, when an asteroid measuring about 50 meters (although these are only estimates because the body was never found) fell into the Tunguska forest in Siberia. We probably also remember the event from 2013 in Chelyabinsk at the foot of the Urals. The estimated size of this body was about 18 meters, and it caused damage in the sense that a lot of glass was broken, etc. There were also minor injuries," says the senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory in Belgrade.
Therefore, she points out, the probability of a potential asteroid impact on Earth is not zero, and the consequences if it did happen would depend on its size, but also on the place where it would fall.
"The least damage would be if it fell in the desert, on a sandy or rocky surface. A fall into the ocean would produce waves, a tsunami, which could cause greater damage on the coast.
If it fell into a populated area, then there could already be direct consequences," says Todorović.
When it comes to asteroid 2024 YR4, NASA states that there is still a chance that it could hit the Moon on December 22, 2032. The probability of such a scenario is 1.7 percent, and Paul Chodas, who heads NASA's Center for the Study of Near-Earth Objects, said that he expects such chances to decrease as well.
The moon's surface is covered with craters, which is evidence of such impacts in the distant past, and if this were to happen this time, Todorović points out that it would be a spectacle, if it were possible to watch it from Earth.
"The result would be great enthusiasm and interest in astronomy, and a few grains of dust that would reach Earth," she says.
