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31-Mar-2025
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Marine Le Pen Verdict – End of Political Ambition or Temporary Retreat?

AUTHOR:M.J. GDNUS

The three-time French presidential candidate has been halted in her rise after embarking on a mission to destigmatize the party and enable the National Rally to become a key player on the political scene, according to an analysis by Le Monde’s Décryptage.

French politician Marine Le Pen is facing the biggest political blow of her career after a verdict handed down today included a four-year prison sentence, two of which were suspended, and a five-year ban from running for office, effective immediately, in a case involving members of the National Front (FN), the predecessor of the National Rally (Rassemblement National – RN).

Although she has announced an appeal, the verdict could potentially prevent her from running for president for a fourth time. Her team saw this candidacy as her last chance to seize power and enter the Élysée Palace. However, nothing is final yet, as a favorable ruling on appeal, which could be issued before 2027, could change everything.

This conviction carries a certain amount of irony, as the French newspaper’s Décryptage analysis notes, since Le Pen once advocated “a lifetime ban from running for elected office for those convicted of misusing public funds.” Moreover, her political rise was initially based on calls for integrity among politicians. The Parisian daily recalls a significant moment on May 22, 2002, when, during a televised debate shortly after her father’s defeat by Jacques Chirac, she accused other politicians of creating public distrust: “Who made the French believe that all politicians are dishonest? You did it,” she said at the time.

Throughout her career, Le Pen has sought to build her own political identity while remaining the heir to her father’s legacy. Initially reluctant to enter politics, she eventually joined the FN and consolidated her influence within the party by supporting Jean-Marie Le Pen during the internal struggles of the late 1990s. As the author of the analysis notes, she gradually accepted the role of future leader of the party, presenting herself as a modernizer while maintaining its nationalist agenda.

Marine Le Pen’s strategy worked on two levels. Within the party, with the support of her father and a loyal inner circle, she eliminated rivals. Outside the party, she crafted an image that differed from the old guard of the FN, especially on sensitive issues such as anti-Semitism and World War II. Her confrontation with her father in 2005 over controversial statements on these issues marked a turning point, leading her to temporarily withdraw and publish her book À Contre Flots (Against the Current) in 2006, which laid the foundations for what was later called “Marinism” and the strategy of “de-demonization.”

As Le Monde explains, this strategy involved abandoning openly anti-Semitic and revisionist rhetoric, professionalizing the party, and broadening its political platform beyond immigration and security issues. Critics accused her of watering down the FN’s message, but she maintained the “national priority” as the party’s ideological backbone. The strategy proved successful: in 2011, she became president of the FN, led three presidential campaigns – twice reaching the second round against Emmanuel Macron – and achieved a series of electoral successes. The number of votes she won has steadily increased, reaching 8.1 million in the first round of the 2022 elections. Under her leadership, the party won several mayoral seats in 2014, while the number of MPs increased from just two in 2012 to 123 by 2025.

The “de-demonization” strategy has also brought it important symbolic victories. The Paris newspaper recalls how she facilitated the institutionalization of RN deputies in the National Assembly and the normalization of relations with segments of the Jewish community. She also won the support of parts of the traditional right, which was clearly seen in the alliance with Eric Ciotti in 2024.

However, Le Monde also points to the weaknesses of her leadership. The RN has survived numerous crises, including the turbulence of 2015 that led to the expulsion of her father. The party has also been criticized for its lack of substantive political solutions, relying mainly on anti-immigration rhetoric rather than a comprehensive political vision. Le Pen has made costly mistakes, the most notorious of which was her poor performance in the 2017 debate against Macron.

Legal difficulties have further burdened her leadership. In 2024, the RN was convicted in a final judgment in the “campaign kits” case, which concerned fraud and misuse of funds during the 2012 parliamentary elections. Several senior party officials and close associates have suffered the consequences of the affair.

While Jean-Marie Le Pen, who died on January 7, played a key role in bringing the far right back into the political mainstream, Marine Le Pen has transformed it into an unavoidable the strength of French politics. The RN is no longer just a marginal movement, but a key player in national debates. However, as Le Monde concludes, today's ruling forces it into political retreat – at least for now.

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