WORLD NEWS FOR MONTENEGRO DIASPORA
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AUTHOR:M.J. GDNUS
Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is losing momentum just weeks after it began, despite a record number of attacks on multiple fronts. Analysis by The Telegraph reveals that Moscow is on track to surpass its own offensive operations record set last month in June. But the intensity of the attacks has not resulted in significant breakthroughs on the battlefield. The offensive, launched in May after a winter of planning, stretches from the northern border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv to the front lines in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk, where Russian forces are making their first attempt at a breakthrough. Over the winter, Moscow has bolstered its forces, honed its tactics and improved the coordination of missile and drone strikes. Early signs have suggested that these preparations are succeeding.
According to DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence project that tracks territorial changes, Russian forces advanced at their fastest pace in May since last November. In the Donetsk region, there have been continued gains, particularly between Pokrovskoye and Kostyantynivka, key targets for Moscow. But a few weeks into the campaign, momentum is waning. “The Russians don’t have the capacity to launch anything new and different at the moment. A summer offensive will simply be a continuation of their spring activities,” Angelica Evans, Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told The Telegraph. In Sumy, Russian forces appear to be stalled. After re-entering the region in January and intensifying their advance this spring, Russian troops have failed to make any further progress. Moreover, Ukraine has managed to regain some territory. Pavlo Narozny, a Ukrainian military analyst based in Sumy, told The Telegraph that Russia’s main objective in the region was Yunakivka, located directly on the road connecting Russia with the centre of Sumy. If Russia were to capture the town, it would open the way to nearby villages on the edge of a large forest. According to Narozny, it would be a “catastrophe” for Ukraine. “The forest stretches all the way to the city of Sumy. If they can get artillery into Yunakivka and the forest, they can threaten the city of Sumy,” he added.
Despite fierce fighting, Ukraine has managed to slow down the Russian advance in the region. ISW reports that Russia is sending thousands of poorly trained soldiers to lead the advance - a pattern that is repeated along the entire front line. “The Russian offensive has mostly stopped... They have the advantage in manpower and drones, but their infantry is very poorly trained,” a senior Ukrainian non-commissioned officer fighting in the direction of Kupiansk in Donetsk told the Telegraph.
The campaign in Sumy is part of a broader Russian effort to establish a buffer zone along the border, aimed at deterring Ukrainian drones and cross-border attacks. Kiev has been using the region as a springboard for its invasion of neighboring Russia’s Kursk Oblast in 2024. While the stated goal was to secure the border, Vladimir Putin last week hinted at the possibility of more ambitious goals.
“Next up is the city of Sumy, the regional center. We don’t have a task to take Sumy, but I don’t rule out that possibility,” he told an economic forum in St. Petersburg, rekindling fears of a wider offensive.
Ukraine’s supreme commander announced on Thursday that the Russian advance in Sumy had been completely halted. “The Russian advance in the Sumy border area has been halted this week, and the front line has been stabilized,” Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed. While Sumy is a symbolic and strategic target, it is only one segment of the summer offensive. Ukrainian officials say Russia is also trying to break through the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and is continuing its push to secure the entire Donbas in the east. “Russia has focused on what we call the Ukrainian fortress belt, which includes Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka and Slavyansk,” Evans explained. “However, since the first months of the war they have not shown the ability to make the rapid and broad advances that they would need to take those cities.”
In Donetsk, a Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, a key Ukrainian logistics hub, would open the way for attacks on Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, bringing Putin closer to control of the entire Donbas region. But given the current pace of the Russian offensive and the insufficient training of their forces, that scenario seems unlikely. “They would need an additional 100,000 men to take Kramatorsk,” a Ukrainian officer estimates. “They needed 40,000 for Avdiivka, 70,000 for Bakhmut, and that included some very well-trained and capable Wagner mercenaries.” Despite a clear manpower advantage of up to 20 to 1 in some sectors, the Ukrainian forces defending Kostyantynivka have held their ground. “Our task is to block their actions,” Captain Filatov told The New York Times, noting that up to 15 Russian attacks are taking place every week. "The Russians are in an unenviable position given the level of exhaustion they are suffering," said Nick Reynolds, a battlefield expert at the Royal United Armed Forces Institute. "They were unable to sustain this pressure due to limited supplies of renewable weapons, especially artillery and armored vehicles."
The troops have made some progress north of Toretsk, but urban fighting around the city has slowed the advance. At the same time, in Pokrovsk, the intensity of the attacks remains high, but the results are inconclusive. On Thursday, more than a quarter of the reported Ukrainian frontline battles took place around the city, but without significant progress. "The Russians have not taken a single city for a long time. "They are celebrating victories over small towns and villages with no real strategic value, reminiscent of Soviet-era practices," commented Professor Michael Clarke, a security and defence analyst. As Russia attempts to open new major fronts in Sumy and Kharkiv, while simultaneously pushing for Dnipropetrovsk, "any potential gains in Donetsk are being lost because their forces are overstretched," he added. Force dispersion is a key aspect of Russian strategy, particularly given fears of a successful counter-offensive by Ukraine in 2022. "The Russians are risk averse," Evans pointed out, "which limits their freedom of manoeuvre." Spreading forces across Ukraine is also part of Russia's "operational theory of victory" - achieving a "systemic breakdown" of the Ukrainian army by applying intense pressure, rather than forcing a major breakthrough, Reynolds explained, adding: "Russian forces seem to have accepted this as the way warfare works, even though that is not true." Despite the general lack of momentum, Russian forces have week, scored a significant success – seizing a valuable lithium deposit in western Donetsk. The mine, located just outside the village of Shevchenko, was captured in recent days, according to geolocated imagery.
Although only 100 hectares in size, this is one of the richest known lithium deposits in Ukraine. Its loss would be a blow to Kiev’s long-term development goals, especially as it seeks to attract Western investment for post-war reconstruction. While the successes on the battlefield have been limited, Russia has launched a series of devastating attacks on civilian targets in recent weeks. At least nine people were killed in a Russian missile and drone strike on Kiev on Monday, while 28 people were killed in a similar attack on June 17. On Tuesday, Russia carried out a deadly missile strike on the Dnieper River, killing at least 19 and wounding 300, and on Saturday morning, an attack on an apartment building in Odessa resulted in the death of a married couple and wounding 17 people. Similar to the tactical decision to By dispersing forces across Ukraine rather than concentrating them in one region, these attacks suggest that Russia's long-term goal is to take over the entire country, not just the four regions it illegally annexed in 2022.
"We have seen a significant escalation of the offensive since January 2025, and the situation has only worsened in the last six months. This is an attempt to force the population to leave and facilitate the future capture of cities," Evans concluded. "Ultimately, we expect a return to the ambition of conquering all of Ukraine," she added.
