The Moment That Foretold Everything

Source: New York Times- AUTHOR: M.J. GDNUS

In the maze of political maneuvering that has shaped Donald Trump’s second term and the campaign that preceded it, one moment stands out as a key harbinger of what is to come. That moment was July 15, 2024—the day Trump chose J.D. Vance as his running mate.

The decision, as podcast host and editor Ezra Klein, author of “Why We Are Polarized,” tells The New York Times, not only marked a break with the structure of his first term, but also signaled a more radical, unwavering direction for the future.

Candidates and the Power Struggle

Before Trump made this decision, the race for vice president seemed open. Among the leading candidates were Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum, two familiar faces from the pre-Trump Republican era. Both candidates would be moderating forces within the Trump administration, providing solace to conservatives who still had doubts about Trump’s leadership.

But Trump’s choice of Vance was something else entirely. Vance, a prominent leader of the MAGA movement, represented a completely new political calculus. Unlike Rubio and Burgum, Vance was not interested in moderation or trying to appease the establishment. On the contrary, he was close to the edgier, faster-paced wing of the Republican Party. His message was clear: the problem in Trump’s first term was not Trump, but the people who sometimes said “no” to him.

Vance made his loyalty clear, even claiming that he would do what Mike Pence was unwilling to do in 2020—refuse to certify the election results. This was a stark signal: Trump’s second term would not be constrained by the system of checks and balances that had characterized his first.

The Battle for Influence

As the date approached, the pressure in the background grew. Rupert Murdoch, financier Ken Griffin, and even Kellyanne Conway reportedly tried to dissuade Trump from picking Vance, warning that it would alienate moderate voters. But Trump’s decision was not influenced by traditional Republican votes, but by a new wave of influencers: Don Jr., Elon Musk, and Tucker Carlson. These figures, deeply rooted in the MAGA movement, advised Trump that choosing Rubio or Burgum would open the door to a more moderate and less loyal administration—and, in their view, make him a target for the growing anger of his supporters.

This was the moment when the structure of Trump’s second term began to take shape: not as a coalition government, as was the case in his first term, but as a tightly controlled regime, in which loyalty to Trump would be the sole criterion for power.

From coalition to court

The difference between Trump’s first and second terms is stark. In his first term, Trump’s presidential administration resembled a coalition government—clumsy, chaotic, and fraught with friction. He often had to compromise with a Republican Party that didn’t fully embrace his policy approach, and his team was filled with advisers who acted as brakes on his more dangerous impulses.

The bureaucracy also resisted many of his demands. While the chaos of his first term was certainly the center of attention, it was also the reason many of the most extreme fears about his presidency didn’t materialize. In a way, the system acted as a moderation for his actions.

But the second term will be different. No more coalition government of reluctant allies. Instead, Trump’s second term will resemble a royal court, where influence will be maintained solely by maintaining Trump’s trust. There will be no more questioning, no more soothing voices, no more advisers who dare to say “no.” The system of checks and balances that had constrained him in the past was over, replaced by a group of loyalists who would follow his will without question.

Disinhibition at the helm

One of Trump’s most prominent traits—his disinhibition—played a key role in shaping this shift. In his first term, this tendency to do and say things that others would not even think of was curbed by those around him, especially those who told him when he was wrong. But as his second term approached, that disinhibition no longer required restraint. Trump would now surround himself with people who embraced his wildness, who would not need to direct him or question his ideas.

The result? A presidency in which the traditional barriers of American democracy began to crumble. With figures like Vance in key positions, Trump’s second term promised to be more radical, unfiltered, and potentially more destructive than his first.

The End of Moderation

The election of Vance on July 15, 2024, crystallized the direction for Trump's second term. There will be no more room for moderate or dissenting voices. Trump's second term will be defined by a single vision: loyalty above all else, and a government of people who only talk the talk "yes". The force and unbridledness that has marked his presidency from the start will now be deliberate, not accidental.

This was a glimpse into the future – a presidency where there would be no more protective barriers, where no one would be allowed to challenge the boss. It was, in every sense, the beginning of a new chapter, one in which the chaos of the first term would seem like the calm before the storm.