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SOURCE: CNN- AUTHOR: M.J. GDNUS
The United States has received new intelligence that suggests Israel is preparing an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities - and at a time when the Donald Trump administration is trying to reach a diplomatic deal with Tehran, several US officials familiar with the information told CNN.
According to US officials, such an attack would be a clear violation of President Trump's policy and could trigger a wider regional conflict in the Middle East - something Washington has been trying to avoid since the start of the Gaza war in 2023, writes CNN.
Although it is not clear whether the Israeli leadership has made a final decision, there are deep divisions within the US administration over whether Israel will act at all. The decision will depend largely on how Israeli authorities assess the course of US-Iranian nuclear talks.
"The likelihood of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has increased significantly in recent months," a source familiar with the intelligence reports told CNN, adding, "If Trump does not reach a deal with Iran to eliminate all of its enriched uranium stockpiles, the possibility of an Israeli strike increases further."
The concern stems not only from public and private messages from Israeli officials hinting at such a possibility, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of military deployments that could indicate preparations for an attack, according to multiple sources.
Among other things, U.S. intelligence agencies have noted the relocation of air weapons and the end of large-scale military exercises in Israel, which could also be a message to Tehran about the seriousness of the threat — or simply an attempt to build pressure.
Israelis silent, is the U.S. attacking too?
CNN reached out to the U.S. National Security Council and the Israeli prime minister for comment, but did not receive a response. The Israeli embassy in Washington also declined to comment.
Trump has already publicly threatened military action against Iran if talks on a new nuclear deal fail, but he has also made it clear that the talks have a time limit.
In a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in March, Trump gave a 60-day deadline to reach an agreement, according to the source. That deadline has expired, and more than a month has passed since the talks began.
A senior Western diplomat who met with Trump earlier this month said the president stressed that the United States is giving diplomacy only a few more weeks before considering a military option. For now, however, the official White House position remains diplomatic.
This has put Israel in a very delicate position, says Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence official for the Middle East. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure to block a deal he sees as unfavorable, but at the same time does not want to damage relations with Trump — with whom he is already at odds over a range of security issues.
“Ultimately, Israeli decisions depend on what the United States does, what kind of agreements Trump will or will not reach with Iran,” Panikoff said. He added that he does not believe Netanyahu would launch an attack without at least tacit American approval.
Iran in its weakest shape in decades
Iran is currently in its worst military position in decades — after Israel destroyed its missile and air defense facilities in October, and in a parallel economic collapse caused by sanctions and the dismantling of Iran’s most powerful regional allies. According to U.S. officials, Israel sees this as a historic opportunity.
The United States is ramping up intelligence gathering to be ready to help if Israel decides to act, a senior U.S. official said. But, according to a source close to the Trump administration, Washington is not currently prepared to assist in an attack unless there is a serious Iranian provocation.
Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program without American help - it needs American aerial refueling and specialized bombs that can penetrate deep-buried facilities, a source familiar with previous US reports said.
An Israeli source told CNN that Tel Aviv would be prepared to act independently if the US signed what it called a "bad deal" with Iran that Israel cannot accept.
"I think they are more likely to attack to destroy the deal if they judge that Trump will back down," another source familiar with US intelligence assessments told CNN. "The Israelis have signaled that clearly - both publicly and privately."
A US intelligence assessment in February suggested that Israel could exploit weakened Iranian air defenses to launch attacks with aircraft or long-range missiles. But the same assessment warned that such an attack would only temporarily slow down Iran's nuclear program - and would not was a permanent solution.
“Netanyahu faces a huge challenge,” Panikoff said.
Details of the negotiations
The US-Iran talks are currently blocked by demands that Tehran completely abandon uranium enrichment - a process essential for producing nuclear weapons, but also for civilian energy use.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff told ABC News that the US “cannot allow even 1% of the enrichment capacity” under the agreement. “We have presented the Iranians with a proposal that we believe does not offend them and addresses the key issues,” he said.
Ayatollah Khamenei said on Tuesday that he did not believe that negotiations with America would lead to results, calling the US demand that Iran not enrich uranium a “big mistake.” Iran says it has the right to enrich under the United Nations Non-Proliferation Treaty and that it will not give up that right under any circumstances.
Witkoff said a new round of talks could be held in Europe this week. Both the US and Iran have put forward proposals, but according to sources, after more than a month of talks conducted from Oman, no US proposal has yet received Trump’s approval.
US intelligence agencies warned as early as February that Israel was likely planning attacks on key Iranian facilities as early as this year.
“Israel has consistently argued that a military option is the only way to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” one US official concluded.
