Balfour: Montenegro could become a member of the EU in five years, but political reforms are necessary

Montenegro could theoretically become a member of the European Union in five years, but political reforms are necessary and for Brussels to show greater commitment - Roza Balfour, director of the non-governmental organization Carnegie Europe, assessed for Pobjeda.
She assessed, commenting on the assessment of the newly elected President of Montenegro, Jakov Milatović, that Montenegro could join the EU in the next five years, that it is theoretically possible, and that it coincides with the new multi-year financial plan of the EU starting in 2027.
Montenegro is quite advanced in the accession process, but it will depend on two things. It's about sequencing. The first thing that must be done are political reforms, they are necessary. That, in terms of sequencing, must be the first point. The second point is that we need to see greater commitment from Brussels in providing support to Ukraine on this path, we need to see unequivocal messages and diplomacy, we need to see technical support from Brussels in helping new governments and institutions and strengthening the independence of these institutions - our interlocutor points out.
He believes that the starting point is the scheduled parliamentary elections, and that then the European Union must double its support to Montenegro.
Considering that the positive consequences for the entire region would be enormous, including North Macedonia and Albania, which are starting their process. And that could be accelerated and have positive effects on the entire region. It would also reverse the disappointment with the European Union, because the EU would show that it is credible with the enlargement process and it needs to show that - said Balfour.
THE POSITION OF BRUSSELS
Answering the question of what is the position of Brussels on the issue of enlargement, he states that the mood has changed, and that was largely influenced by the fact that Russia attacked Ukraine.
He also reminds that Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova also received candidate status.
This is a new moment in the enlargement process, even though the EU's involvement in the Western Balkans has abnormally decreased over the past 10 years. Despite this new momentum, it will lead to some changes in Brussels that will pave the way for individual countries to join the alliance - Balfour believes.
When asked how this will affect Montenegro, he points out that "first of all, we need to see how things will unfold in the parliamentary elections".
The EU wants to see evidence of progress, the EU wants to see that the changes are really implemented, at all levels, before they decide - our interlocutor points out.
We have to understand, he adds, that the EU will be very careful regarding the date of the new accession.
The reasons why the EU delayed enlargement are still there, they have not disappeared. The EU is worried about how it will function in the future, it is worried about the decision-making process, it is worried about a lot of differences. Montenegro is a small country, it could be quickly absorbed, it is not too big a challenge, but in any case the focus will be on challenges related to the rule of law - said Balfur.
THE RULE OF LAW
According to her, the European Union does not want to repeat its experiences related to Hungary.
Experiences related to Hungary's accession to the EU, where democracy is retreating, where EU decisions are constantly obstructed, which has been very visible in recent years, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is a situation that the EU does not want to repeat - said Balfour.
In the European Union, he adds, there are those who believe that the previous enlargement came very quickly.
I don't agree with that, but I think that the lessons that have been learned from the fact that democracies that were not compatible, such as those in Hungary and Poland. That is why it is important to see how during the EU enlargement process it focuses on the rule of law and the challenges related to democracy and how the countries that want to join ensure that they will remain democratic and not revert to the previous path. I think this is something that the revised methodology foresees - said Balfur.
NEW STRATEGY
He also believes that the point must be reached when the EU will create a new strategy that will prevent a recession of democracy.
We're not there yet. What we have seen is that the EU has strengthened its toolkit to combat the deterioration of the rule of law and this is closely linked to the RECOVERY FUND. This is from 2020, which means that then the EU did not have these tools to prevent what happened in Hungary. Now she has conditionally tied them to the European RECOVERY FUND, and I see a strengthening trend in that area - said Balfur.
According to her, this is not because the European Union particularly cares about democracy, but because it cares about functioning.
It has to work because of the international context of disorder and disruption, which is dangerous, and that is why there is a strong commitment in the EU to protect itself from the international environment. The more members, the better, but these members have to share the same political values and the same international goals - emphasizes Balfur.
In this way, he adds, the circle will be closed. In the EU, we still have different political opinions on enlargement. There are those who want rapid expansion and for whom the rule of law is second on the list of priorities. There are also those who don't really want expansion - said our interlocutor.
Answering the question of whose voice is louder, he points out that the EU is an "animal of compromise".
There must be a space in between. The meeting point of these two logics is in favor not necessarily of the governments of the Western Balkans, but of the citizens of this region who want their countries to be member democracies of the EU. So that meeting point is actually a very positive thing for the citizens of the Western Balkans - concluded Balfour.
TAKEN - "POBJEDA"