WORLD NEWS FOR MONTENEGRO DIASPORA
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AUTHOR:M.J. GDNUS
Carsten Breuer's tone sounds more worried and alarming than before. Two weeks ago, the Bundeswehr chief inspector was a guest on the famous talk show hosted by Sandra Maischberger on the public service ARD. The host asked him if the West could breathe a sigh of relief after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.
Breuer reacted with the caution befitting his position, but still unusually clear: No, it cannot breathe a sigh of relief. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said, it is not just about Ukraine. Russia, he said, is continuing to arm itself.
The end of the war in Ukraine, he said, will not lead to "peace on the European continent again." Finally, Carlo Masala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, put it succinctly: "Russia is preparing for a major war," Deutsche Welle reports.
Permanent threat to Europe
These days, representatives of the German armed forces in particular have been warning more directly and clearly than ever before about the permanent threat to peace in Europe from Russia and a possible attack on a NATO member state. According to research by the public broadcasters WDR, NDR and the daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, the basis for the stricter assessment is several new assessments of the situation by European intelligence services, including the joint Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr.
Their report, it is learned, states that Russia will probably create all the conditions necessary to wage a "large-scale conventional war" by the end of the decade.
This assessment of the situation is only a few weeks old. The report explains why both military experts and representatives of the Bundeswehr have recently expressed such concerns. In it, the analysts describe what the threat looks like from their perspective.
It is a summary and assessment of information collected by the Bundeswehr and the BND in recent years. In addition to open sources, this includes intelligence findings, satellite reconnaissance and analysis of the economic and military situation. The forecasts have been repeatedly described as "almost certain", which is the highest category on the intelligence agencies' rating scale.
The basic message of the analysis suggests to the West that the conflict with Moscow could escalate and last a long time. Russia, it is said, sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is ready to pursue its imperialist goals with military force, even outside of Ukraine, although there is currently no evidence of "an imminent confrontation between Russia and NATO", Deutsche Welle reports.
Limited military action possible soon
The Russian armed forces, it further states, have been operating in Ukraine from a position of superiority for some time. Moscow is showing no serious signs of being willing to compromise on the conflict and could continue the war this year, according to intelligence and military analysts. Despite the sanctions, Russia is said to be in a position to militarily position itself to attack a NATO country soon.
This assessment is in line with a confidential analysis by the Lithuanian internal affairs intelligence service VSD. In security circles, the service is considered a good expert on the situation in Russia. In the VSD report, analysts in Vilnius conclude that Russia will not be able to wage a "large-scale conventional war against NATO" in the medium term. However, despite the war in Ukraine, existing Russian forces would be sufficient to "launch a limited military action against one or more NATO countries."
Russia still has enough weapons, the VSD document states. "While Western sanctions have had a negative impact on the Russian arms industry, the volume of production of artillery shells, rockets and other key categories of ammunition is growing year by year," the Lithuanian intelligence analysts said. Russia, they further state, can still finance the war. "Russia has not yet reached the limit of its financial capabilities," the document continued. The Kremlin's military spending has recently "increased at a breathtaking rate every year," the VSD said. It is estimated that it could reach around 120 billion euros by 2025.
Lessons from past years
Russia could not only make up for the heavy losses in manpower and materiel in Ukraine, but could even accelerate rearmament, according to German intelligence. According to an assessment of the situation, Russia's war economy is producing more than is needed for the war against Ukraine. Putin has also ordered the recruitment of up to 1.5 million additional soldiers by 2026.
The fact that the German BND is analyzing things with such a sharp and almost alarmist approach could also be a lesson from unfortunate assessments in recent years. After the chaotic evacuation of the German embassy in Kabul in 2021, the service faced criticism for not adapting its scenarios quickly enough to the developments at the time.
The service also initially seemed unhappy with the start of Russia's attack on Ukraine: when Russia deployed troops on the border with Ukraine in the winter of 2021/2022, not everyone in the BND was considered it likely that Putin would actually dare to invade.
Testing the alliance
The signs were quite clear at the time. The American secret services, for example, warned that blood supplies were already being transported. In addition, the law was changed in Russia that allows the creation of mass graves for the dead in the event of war. Nobody needs that, the Americans said at the time, for practice.
The intelligence service may not want to be accused of not recognizing or misinterpreting the signs of the times. BND President Bruno Kahl therefore warned at the end of January that the Russian military doubts NATO's readiness to defend itself and that Moscow could very soon be tempted to test the Atlantic alliance.
Air force and navy capable of action in the Baltics
But where could such a test for NATO, as described, be held? The Baltic states, formerly part of the Soviet Union, are considered particularly vulnerable and, according to Putin's doctrine, are seen as lost territory of the empire. Experts from the BND and the Bundeswehr have also examined the situation there and come to an ambiguous conclusion.
Approximately three-quarters of the soldiers and equipment of the Russian troops from the border areas with the Baltic states are currently tied up in Ukraine. However, this does not apply to the Russian air force and navy, which remain fully operational in the Baltic region. However, the threat of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states is currently considered quite low, according to the services. But, the services say, this could change quickly.
The Baltics better prepared
If a ceasefire or any kind of peace situation were to occur in Ukraine, the secret services say that it is very likely that Russian units would withdraw. Due to rearmament, the material lost in Ukraine would probably have been replaced long ago: Russian soldiers would be returning, and the barracks and weapons depots would already be full again. Russia could then, it is said, be able to concentrate its forces directly on NATO countries, Deutsche Welle reports.
However, German analysts also point out encouraging aspects: Russia's influence in the three Baltic states, politically, socially and economically, has declined significantly. Russian-speaking citizens are becoming increasingly integrated, and the population's resistance to attempts at destabilization and influence from Moscow has been strengthened. All of these, they say, are developments in recent years that, at the very least, are making Russian expansion more difficult.
