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31-Mar-2025
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Trump Threatens Russia with Secondary Tariffs; Could Have Consequences for Europe

AUTHOR:M.J. GDNUS

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil, warning that the measure could apply to all countries that continue to trade with Moscow, including US allies in Europe.

"I'm very angry with Putin," Trump told NBC News over the weekend, saying that if there is no peace deal with Ukraine - and if he concludes that Russia is to blame - he will impose secondary tariffs of 25 to 50 percent on all Russian oil.

"If Russia and I cannot reach an agreement to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I conclude that Russia is to blame - and it may not be - I will impose secondary tariffs on all Russian oil," Trump said. "That means if you buy oil from Russia, you will not be able to do business in the United States."

Serious consequences for global trade

Such tariffs would have serious consequences for global trade, and could particularly hit India and China – two countries that have emerged as major buyers of Russian oil in recent years. India alone imported about 35 percent of its total crude oil from Russia in 2024, overtaking China as the largest importer of Russian oil exports by sea.

But the measure could also have wider consequences for Europe, including the European Union, whose companies – despite the embargo on Russian crude oil – have continued to buy Russian derivatives indirectly, especially through third-country markets. European refineries, shipping companies and financial institutions involved in this trade could be hit if the Trump administration decides to implement the tariff policy without exceptions.

Possible new conflict between the US and its allies

Analysts warn that such a move would lead to conflict between Washington and its allies, disrupt supply chains and cause new disruptions in energy markets. At the same time, secondary tariffs could serve as a powerful instrument of pressure on Moscow, especially if Trump ties them to specific goals such as ending the war in Ukraine.

Ahead of the US presidential election at the end of the year, Trump is increasingly using a harsh tone towards foreign policy rivals, but also towards allies who do not follow his vision of the international order. Secondary tariffs could thus become one of the key weapons in his renewed foreign policy doctrine — where "loyalty" to the US is also measured through economic decisions.

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