Conclave is being held behind closed doors, but world leaders are still trying to influence

AUTHOR:M.J GDNUS

With discreet messages and behind-the-scenes contacts, some governments are trying to influence the election of the new pope. Whether they succeed depends on the 133 cardinals.

To a greater or lesser extent, world leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, Giorgio Meloni and Donald Trump are trying to influence the process of choosing the successor to Pope Francis. The conclave, which begins today, brings together 133 cardinals who will choose the leader of 1.4 billion Catholics around the world – and rarely have global political tensions been so reflected in a single religious event. The divisions among the cardinals have never been so pronounced.

And while discreet lunches are held in the Vatican over a glass of Chianti, informal information is shared and prestigious functions are arranged after the conclave, the atmosphere is already saturated with speculation and intrigue. Only when the doors are closed and the cell phone signals are gone can the cardinals try to resist external pressures.

This situation not only confirms the global influence of the Catholic Church, but also its important role in a world that is increasingly unstable and where traditional alliances and beliefs are becoming increasingly shaky.

The cardinals are not clear about why such pressures are occurring. Leaders with strong nationalist views could benefit politically from a pope from their own country. Western powers, on the other hand, want to avoid electing a pope who criticizes NATO expansion, is sympathetic to China, or has different views on ethical issues such as migration and abortion.

A charismatic pope can strongly influence public opinion, especially in predominantly Catholic countries, or become an important voice against certain policies – as was the case with Pope Francis in relation to Donald Trump.

The political games began almost immediately after Francis died on Easter Monday. Instead of public meetings with minutes, discreet lobbying and quiet diplomatic messages are taking place in the background.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who was in Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis, met with four French cardinals – which some in the Vatican interpreted as a signal that he supports the election of a pope from France. Macron’s office denied that he was trying to influence the election, while the French embassy in Rome said that this was “usual republican practice”. Any claims to the contrary were considered “inappropriate”.

At the same time, Donald Trump supported an American cardinal who had previously opposed the Vatican-China deal – and even joked that he could be pope. China took advantage of the vacuum and appointed two bishops on its own initiative, without the consent of the Holy See.

As for Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, although she has instructed her MPs to refrain from commenting, media outlets close to her coalition have openly promoted cardinals whose views they find acceptable, while criticizing potential candidates who are not to her liking.

Conclave wiretapping

Attempts at foreign influence on the election of a pope are nothing new – especially during the Cold War, when the CIA was suspected of eavesdropping on the conclave. Until the early 20th century, France, Spain and Austria-Hungary even had the right to veto the election of a pope.

At a time when Western moral authority and influence in multilateral institutions are waning, electing a pope with a more complex view of global issues such as China and Ukraine could pose new problems. Pope Francis has redistributed power by appointing an unusually large number of cardinals from countries in the global South, a sign that the Catholic Church can no longer be seen as an extension of the West.

“More than Greenland or the Panama Canal, Trump wants the Church back – with the West,” said Piero Schiavazz, a professor of Vatican geopolitics at Link University in Rome.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron, who faces political challenges at home, is pushing for a progressive pope from France, Schiavazz said, “as a spiritual leader with maximum authority.”

“Such a figure could help steer public opinion in France toward the moderate left,” he added.

Are they looking to the future or the past?

The cardinals, however, are not immune to politics themselves, and their interests should not be underestimated. Since the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, they have met daily, informally delivering campaign-like speeches as they consider whether to adapt the Church to modern trends or continue to resist them.

In order to recall the spiritual purpose of the conclave after several weeks marked by political tensions, the cardinals went to St. Peter's Basilica on Sunday, where a mass was held that left a strong impression on pilgrims and tourists.

But soon after that, everything was back to normal. Taking off their silken white cloaks, they fanned out around the city continuing the secret of lobbying – analyzing the main favorites and possible voting blocs.

Although they publicly invoke the Holy Spirit, cardinals are nowhere near protected from the noise of the world politics.

“We talk about all the topics that you write about in the media — evangelization, the life of the Church and the need to be aware of the realities of the world around us,” Cardinal Fernando Filoni, 79, who served in Baghdad during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, told Politico.

Others seem exhausted by the constant intrusion of worldly topics into their daily lives. One cardinal asked reporters in St. Peter’s Square on Monday to leave him alone because he was going to dinner. Another revealed that he planned to watch the film Conclave with Ralph Fiennes to prepare.

What to expect

Cardinals will vote for the first time at 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday, and they can have up to four votes a day until a special chimney emits white smoke, signaling a deal has been reached.

The frontrunners for the new pope reflect the divisions that are shaking world politics — between liberals and conservatives, isolationists and protectionists, and between the global North and the global South.

The most serious attacks on the Internet, especially from conservative American portals, are being made against the candidates who are considered front-runners.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s top diplomat and Pope Francis’s longest-serving ally, and Filipino Cardinal Antonio Tagle, a former prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, have been accused by the US-based organization BishopAccountability.org of failing to act on sexual abuse cases. Parolin has been further criticized for his alleged illness and for his role in brokering a deal between the Vatican and China.

More than anyone else, Parolin is the link between the West and its rising rivals.

“He is slowly losing support as younger, non-European cardinals are now coming to the fore,” said one cardinal.

Support for candidates who would continue Pope Francis’s path is growing, including Tagle, the Maltese Mario Greco, and the American Robert Prevost.

“The name of Pope Francis has been mentioned a lot during our discussions,” Indonesian Cardinal Ignasius Suhario Hardjoatmódžo told Politico.

Asked if the election of a “Francis II” was possible, Cardinal Gregorio Rosa Chavez of El Salvador said, “It is possible.”

The aim of the conclave is to send a message of unity after years of internal strife.

With days without internet ahead, one cardinal said he had bought a wristwatch and a “wind-up” alarm clock.

Others simply want it all to be over as quickly as possible. Asked if he expected a quick election, Cardinal Filoni said, “I hope so.”