WORLD NEWS FOR MONTENEGRO DIASPORA
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SOURCE: RADIO FREE EUROPE - AUTHOR: M.J. GDNUS
In eight months, political paralysis has descended from the state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina on Republika Srpska, after this entity was left without a president and subsequently without a functional government by a court ruling against Milorad Dodik.
The National Assembly of Republika Srpska has called a referendum in which voters should decide whether to accept the decisions of the High Representative of the International Community, Christian Schmidt, the Court and the Central Election Commission (CIK) of BiH, which penalized the former entity president Milorad Dodik.
Analysts and the opposition believe that the referendum will be legally challenged, but that it could also become unclear how the entity system will function if a legal vacuum arises around the election of the new RS Government, which is responsible for key areas such as health care, education and police.
"There will be a complete institutional collapse in Republika Srpska," Enver Kazaz, a university professor from Sarajevo, told Radio Free Europe.
Milorad Dodik was convicted and removed from office in early August, after being convicted of disobeying decisions by the international community's High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt.
Among other things, Schmidt used his powers to annul unconstitutional laws adopted by Republika Srpska in an attempt to challenge decisions by the state-level Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, to which Dodik had appealed the verdict.
On 22 August, the National Assembly called a referendum on Dodik's verdict and at the same time accepted the resignation of entity Prime Minister Radovan Višković, whose government will remain in a "technical mandate" until a new one is appointed.
Dodik then proposed Savo Minić as the new government's prime minister-designate, although only the president of the RS can do so, which Dodik is no longer formally and legally responsible for.
Although the referendum may be blocked or annulled, analysts predict that the political and legal consequences of the prime minister's resignation will last for months in the entity that Dodik led for two decades, as well as in the state government in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Dodik's SNSD has been blocking key decisions in the state government and parliament since the beginning of this year, including the adoption of the 2025 budget.
The BiH Council of Ministers has not even adopted the reform agenda, which is a prerequisite for the payment of a potential billion euros from the European Union Growth Plan for infrastructure projects, and Brussels has already cut that amount for BiH by ten percent and warned that it will be further reduced periodically.
The Social Democratic Party, People and Justice and Our Party (Sarajevo's "Troika") broke off the state coalition with the SNSD at the beginning of the year, demanding that the RS opposition take over power due to the unconstitutional moves of the government in Republika Srpska. The SNSD is blocking the dismissal of its personnel by boycotting the vote.
Is RS in an institutional crisis?
"What if the ruling party appoints a prime minister and someone challenges the decision of the National Assembly through the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina? Who will then be the prime minister and who the ministers? What if the co-signatory on the other side does not accept the new prime minister for any reason? Then we are in trouble," Nedeljko Glamočak, a representative of the opposition Serbian Democratic Party in the National Assembly, told RFE/RL.
As the only solution to the uncertainty regarding the acceptance of the new government by international and domestic financial institutions, Glamočak sees the calling of early elections as a way to create conditions for an elected president and a new government that would restore stability, "regardless of which political option they come from."
Read also: Dodik proposes RS Prime Minister-designate without legal authority
Enver Kazaz, a university professor and political analyst from Sarajevo, tells RFE/RL that it is necessary to monitor how Dodik's closest associates will react "because it is dragging them into political illegality and they will be forced to save their own existence."
Kazaz emphasizes that it is crucial that there were no incidents, and that both the ruling party from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the opposition from the RS are calling for peace and stability.
"Citizens are showing greater wisdom and awareness than political oligarchies," Kazaz said.
He believes that Dodik is using the referendum as a "cheap political trick in which he is trying to hold the entire entity hostage to his political ruin and the preservation of his personal wealth."
What is the future of the referendum?
"The BiH Prosecutor's Office can now summon former RS President Milorad Dodik for inciting the commission of a criminal offense of disrespect for the judgments of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina and previous judgments of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina," believes Dževad Mahmutović, a professor of criminal law.
He recalls that Dodik "personally executed the judgment" by purchasing it for around 18,000 euros.
"The second part of the judgment remains, the measure of banning him from holding elected or appointed office, as a security measure," Mahmutović told RFE/RL, who is a delegate in the Bosniak Club in the Council of Peoples of Republika Srpska.
This second chamber of the entity parliament, composed of representatives of Bosniaks, Croats, Serbs and Others, has the right to veto decisions of the National Assembly. This veto is subsequently decided by the entity Constitutional Court of the RS. If the court overturns the veto, the decision or law become final after being signed by the entity president.
Mahmutović points out that it is possible to request a review of constitutionality from the state Constitutional Court of BiH, and that he is "already preparing an appeal" to the amendments to the Law on Referendum in RS, which allow for the formation of an ad hoc commission, because he believes that equal representation of Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs in that commission is not guaranteed.
"As for the referendum issue itself, the Constitutional Court of BiH has already decided that the decisions of no court can be reviewed in a referendum," Mahmutović told RFE/RL.
The European Union, through its Delegation to BiH, condemned Dodik's referendum initiative, stating that the decision of the Court of BiH must be respected.
